Elections and Peace in Congo
Elections are scheduled for Sunday in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Friends in DRC and the US ask me what I think will happen. I think Sunday will go relatively smoothly, but as the results come in, there are a few different scenarios.
If anyone wins the first round without a run-off, it will be Kabila. With 33 candidates in the field, I think it is unlikely that he will get 50%, but it could be close. From Kinshasa, it is hard to estimate because he is so unpopular. And I have never traveled in the east, where he has overwhelming support. If he wins a first round, it could be relatively smooth, because the opposition is heavily factionalized, something that I suspect would change if we were to reach a second round. In a second round, there would be opposition alliances depending upon who the candidate is. Throughout the campaign, Bemba has seemed to be the strongest challenger. Bemba has strong ties to Uganda, and his father was a business associate of Mobutu and he has a militia. A run-off between Kabila and Bemba, I believe, has the potential to become extremely ugly. It is possible that Ruberwa, who has a militia and support from Rwanda, would join Bemba. And in a second round, all bets are off and Kabila is in danger. And Kabila has a military as well.
There are other candidates who could emerge in a run-off. Pay Pay, a former head of the bank who was also formerly in rebellion, was strong although he seems to be fading. Pay Pay has some support in the east, where Kabila is strong, and elsewhere so the regional divisions in a Pay Pay-Kabila race could be less exacerbated. Gizenga, an old Lumumba ally, has come on strong in recent weeks which is an encouraging sign. Although Gizenga’s PALU party has conflicts with other groups (including UDPS), he strikes me as a credible and upright candidate. Gizenga, however, does not have a lot of support among the young adults who will form the majority of the electorate. This seems to be mainly a matter of style; he doesn’t use tshirts in his campaign, but does a lot more grassroots work. Kashala could be a factor; he will get the support of many UPDS partisans who consider him to be above the corruption of Congolese politics since he has lived so long in the US. (Part of this support will also be ethnic.) When I ask people about Kashala, they usually refer to the length of his cv, not the content. The desire is so strong to find someone whose hands are clean of the years of war that have bloodied the Congo. Kashala would be a longshot here. One of the variables would be an endorsement of Tshisikedi in the first or second round. It seems unlikely, but Tshi-Tshi can be surprising.
If Kabila wins, there will probably be a strong opposition in parliament, which will be another source of conflict. The parliament will then elect the Prime Minister, who could be from the opposition. With 9,000 candidates for 500 seats, the parliamentary elections are even more difficult to analyze than the presidential race.
Whether Kabila wins or not, there are a lot of potential sources for conflict--regional and otherwise. It is hard to imagine certain opposition factions accepting a Kabila victory or Kabila accepting a loss. The hatred of Kabila in Kinshasa is extremely strong. Strong enough that it will be difficult for him to govern from the capital city.
Most people throughout the country want peace and justice; I hope that we are on the road.
If anyone wins the first round without a run-off, it will be Kabila. With 33 candidates in the field, I think it is unlikely that he will get 50%, but it could be close. From Kinshasa, it is hard to estimate because he is so unpopular. And I have never traveled in the east, where he has overwhelming support. If he wins a first round, it could be relatively smooth, because the opposition is heavily factionalized, something that I suspect would change if we were to reach a second round. In a second round, there would be opposition alliances depending upon who the candidate is. Throughout the campaign, Bemba has seemed to be the strongest challenger. Bemba has strong ties to Uganda, and his father was a business associate of Mobutu and he has a militia. A run-off between Kabila and Bemba, I believe, has the potential to become extremely ugly. It is possible that Ruberwa, who has a militia and support from Rwanda, would join Bemba. And in a second round, all bets are off and Kabila is in danger. And Kabila has a military as well.
There are other candidates who could emerge in a run-off. Pay Pay, a former head of the bank who was also formerly in rebellion, was strong although he seems to be fading. Pay Pay has some support in the east, where Kabila is strong, and elsewhere so the regional divisions in a Pay Pay-Kabila race could be less exacerbated. Gizenga, an old Lumumba ally, has come on strong in recent weeks which is an encouraging sign. Although Gizenga’s PALU party has conflicts with other groups (including UDPS), he strikes me as a credible and upright candidate. Gizenga, however, does not have a lot of support among the young adults who will form the majority of the electorate. This seems to be mainly a matter of style; he doesn’t use tshirts in his campaign, but does a lot more grassroots work. Kashala could be a factor; he will get the support of many UPDS partisans who consider him to be above the corruption of Congolese politics since he has lived so long in the US. (Part of this support will also be ethnic.) When I ask people about Kashala, they usually refer to the length of his cv, not the content. The desire is so strong to find someone whose hands are clean of the years of war that have bloodied the Congo. Kashala would be a longshot here. One of the variables would be an endorsement of Tshisikedi in the first or second round. It seems unlikely, but Tshi-Tshi can be surprising.
If Kabila wins, there will probably be a strong opposition in parliament, which will be another source of conflict. The parliament will then elect the Prime Minister, who could be from the opposition. With 9,000 candidates for 500 seats, the parliamentary elections are even more difficult to analyze than the presidential race.
Whether Kabila wins or not, there are a lot of potential sources for conflict--regional and otherwise. It is hard to imagine certain opposition factions accepting a Kabila victory or Kabila accepting a loss. The hatred of Kabila in Kinshasa is extremely strong. Strong enough that it will be difficult for him to govern from the capital city.
Most people throughout the country want peace and justice; I hope that we are on the road.
posted by irad at 2:19 PM
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