20,000,000+ voters

Two weeks ago, the election commission here registered its 20 millionth voter, which is an impressive milestone for a country where the electorate is estimated at about 30 million. The commission is aiming for 28 million to 30 million registrants, but 25 million seems more likely. The registration process is very technologically sophisticated--it involves a digital photograph, thumb scan, and the issuance of a registration card on the spot. There is a lot of work still to be done--registration just got under way in the final two provinces last week, slightly behind schedule. There are set to be 40,000 polling stations in a country the size of the US east of the Mississippi, much of it inaccessible by roads. The cost is $410-$420 million, paid for by international donors. The UN Security Council, in a show of support, was here last week for the sixth time in the past six years, which is, I believe, as much as it has visited any one country during that time.

There is still more than one month until the December 18 referendum in which voters will vote to approve (or reject) the new constitution. Just as importantly, the referendum is a dry run for the parliamentary and presidential elections (which its passage would authorize). The presidential election will, like the second round tally currently finishing up in Liberia, require a run-off between the top two candidates if no one receives a majority of the vote. The parliamentary elections, which will be held at the same time as the Presidential elections, are of great importance as well, and, at least for me, even more difficult to get a handle on. The pending constitution stipulates that the elected Parliament then elects the Prime Minister. This process, including a possible Presidential run-off, is expected to conclude by the end of June.

There are some outstanding questions, including the role of the Union pour la démocratie et le progress social (UDPS). Etienne Tshisekedi wa Mulumba founded the UDPS in 1982 and launched a pro-democracy movement in 1988. In the early 1990s, Mobutu agreed to introduce a multi-party system and in 1992 the Sovereign National Council overwhelming elected Tshisekedi as Prime Minister. He only served a few months; Mobutu removed him and his ministers from office in December 1992. For a period in the early 1990s, Tshisekedi was the most popular and credible political figure in this country, arguably the most popular here since Lumumba. Since then, Tshisekedi has taken a lot of criticism. Laurent Kabila’s government, during its first year, reached out to include him in the government. He refused. The same thing happened during the Sun City negotiations for the current transition. He refused to participate and is now not in the government. He would have almost certainly gained one of the four Vice-President positions had he participated. Although nowhere near as popular as he was twelve years ago, Tshisekedi remains an important nationalist voice and opposition leader. The UDPS is particularly strong in the Kasai region, where registration rates have been high (so there doesn’t appear to be a rank-and-file boycott of the registration process). The UDPS was not going to participate in the elections but has, as I understand it, after a meeting with Security Council members last week agreed to join with some preconditions. A resolution remains to be seen.

People are excited about the election process. There are billboards in the city and infomercials on television. With so many good reasons to be cynical, I have found very few who are. People really believe in this process. The people were very welcoming of Laurent Kabila in 1997, and he had a lot of initial support during his first year. People are eager for change, and while it appears highly likely that the president will come from inside the current government (President or one of the four Vice Presidents), there is some genuine anticipation of the possibilities of an elected government. (The current power-sharing arrangement only allows for limited powers.) The caution about the election and its impact is infused with earnestness and optimism. Stay tuned.